Now seriously, do you think one language or one platform is going to make Flash, Flex or AIR disappear?
How many other new technologies have entered the marketplace over the past several years? Did any of them replace what Flash has to offer to the point that it was on the verge of disappearing? What does a new technology have to offer to be so competitive, that it eliminates another? And if new technology comes into play with the potential of offer similar features and more, does that mean that Adobe is going to stop the evolution of Flash itself and allow it to vanish?
As time passes by I’ve heard many new programming languages and libraries, from AJAX, Django, Ruby, to HTML5, and many new hardware devices with their own platforms, iPod (Objective-C) and Droid (Andriod) phones. As new technologies enter the market, they challenging existing languages to evolve in their ability to support features and functionality. And as the devices evolve, support for new options in user interaction expand. Hey, now we’ve got touch devices at our fingertips responding to other gestures besides just a button click, such as multi-touch, shake and rotate. Is there anything so special about any of these technologies that immediately threatens Flash? Flash is evolving with the new advances in technology. The latest release CS5 supports repurposing source code for mobile devices and the new gestures that these devices have to offer.
It wasn’t always Flash. Once upon a time there was SmartSketch, for drawing on the computer, which became FutureSplash Animator, for creating animations, and eventually there was Flash, the animation tool for the internet. Flash has come a long way over the years offering more opportunities as it evolved over time. Remember when you choose to download the Flash Player Plug-in and install it in your browser? Well now it comes with your browser updates! And subsequent Player updates are behind the scenes. Video display in browsers was platform dependent, but Flash broke this when it integrated video display capabilities into the Flash Player.
What about the audience that produces Flash files for distribution? Flash is tailored heavily towards the visual design industry. This is where it started and they continue to support this audience. I don’t see any strong WYSIWYG tools for these other languages supporting a seasoned graphic designer who’s strength isn’t in writing code. What about those traditional frame-by-frame animations? The Flash IDE provides the mental model of the timeline that best suits what these animator’s are trying to accomplish. Not to mention, many sites are designed assuming that some viewers don’t have the Flash Player, and alternative content is created.
Not only did the Flash Authoring Tool adopt over time, but so did its programming language, ActionScript. Initially there were very limited scripting capabilities built into Flash, but over time it transitioned into an
ECMAScript scripting language, added in an event handling model, supported class based inheritance and type casting. Flash has been expanding into the developer market place, perhaps not a favorite to the hard core developer, but certainly more attractive and in line with object oriented programming principles than it was inn the beginning.
I see a re-occuring theme here. Yes, there are disruptive technologies that enter the market place and pull the carpet right out from underneath existing established technologies. But, what if these existing technologies continue to invest in their future, keeping on eye on trends in the marketplace and evolving their offerings to support the needs of their audience? How is the iPhone or HTML5 so unique and competitively different that they will make Flash vanish into thin air? Sorry, neither one is disruptive enough to make Flash vanish when Adobe is continuing to invest in its future.
I’m not saying that these technologies don’t have a place in the market place, but I hardly see them taking place of an already established technology that is continuing to evolve with the demands of its users and the audience that views the end result, the published swf file. Adobe doesn’t have a blind eye facing their competitors, they are well aware they’re not alone in a world of many offering technological solutions.